Knowing when to bet against the crowd is key --
Greenspan 3.0 and Other Random End-of-Year Thoughts - Bloomberg: "The death of contrarians has been greatly exaggerated. The reason is that the crowd is the market for most of any cycle. You cannot be contrarian all the time, otherwise you end up simply fighting the tape the whole way up (or down), therefore being wildly wrong. That said, there are small moments of intense uniformity of thought and widespread agreement in markets. That is when contrarians get fed. This is a state of mind that is exceedingly difficult for you social herd animals to inhabit. If it feels good and right, it's probably not that terribly uncomfortable contrarian moment."
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