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Seer-sucker Theory, Forecasting, Value of Experts
The seer-sucker theory: the value of experts in forecasting | The Big Picture: "Although experts are poor at forecasting change, this does not mean that judgmental forecasting is useless.However, since all available evidence suggests that expertise beyond an easily achieved minimum is of little valuein forecasting change, the most obvious advice is to hire inexpensive experts. Also, look for unbiased experts - thosewho are not actually involved in the situation."
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