Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "China Urbanization Growth Fallacy"; Trouble with Ponzi Schemes; Stopped Clock Syndrome; Wrong vs. Early
: " . . . the economy is addicted to unsustainable increases in debt, and while Beijing can flail away at individual problems areas, it cannot resolve the underlying debt problem without a sharp slowdown in growth. Most analysts have lowered their forecasts substantially in the past two years, and especially in the past month, but they are still deluding themselves about longer-term growth prospects. I just don’t see how we can grow at 7-8% without running the risk of a serious debt crisis before the end of the period. As it is we are having a hard enough time understanding what current growth rates really are. Power consumption, for example, simply doesn’t suggest that growth rates have been able to hold up. . . ."
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